Friday 12 April 2019

Predictor Challenge - 13th April 2019

Well that was an interesting weekend.  Not only do we gain a bit more clarity on who might be lifting the West 1 title, but we also have a few "shock" results in the Predictor Challenge as well as a couple of unfulfilled fixtures.

First, the unfulfilled fixtures.



Predicted win %
Draw Count
Cumnock 41.3% v 56.5% Dalziel 2.2% 46
Garnock 80.4% v 17.4% Irvine 2.2% 46
Strathendrick 10.9% v 87.0% Greenock Wanderers 2.2% 46
Clydebank 0.0% v 100.0% Lenzie 0.0% 45
Cumbernauld 58.1% v 39.5% Loch Lomond 2.3% 43
Paisley 77.3% v 22.7% Wigtownshire 0.0% 44
Strathaven 93.3% v 6.7% Helensburgh 0.0% 45
Birkmyre 81.4% v 18.6% Shawlands 0.0% 43
Glasgow Uni Medics 93.2% v 6.8% Isle of Mull 0.0% 44

Cumbernauld v Loch Lomond was off as there was no ref, whilst the West 3 game involving title challengers Glasgow Uni Medics was off as Mull were not able to field a team.

At the top of West 1, Greenock Wanderers maintain their stake in the title race with a win at Strathendrick, but by the sounds of it, Endrick had a bit of a comeback 2nd half that may have put a few Fort Matilda nerves on end.

Leading 22-14 at half time, Greenock then stretched their lead to 39-14, but a spirited closing display saw a final score of 39-31.  The result closes the gap to EK and Glens at the top of the table, and sets things up nicely for this weekends match between Greenock and Glens at Fort Matilda.

The main shock of the weekend was in the West 3 game between Birkmyre and Shawlands.  Our Predictor entrants had third place Birkmyre as strong favourites to win this one (81%), but it was Shawlands who claimed a 48-8 victory.


In the Garnock v Irvine derby our entrants had Garnock down as strong favourites, with over 80% of entrants going for them, but it ended an 19 each draw.  Only one of our entrants opted for the draw, so well done to Pops Da for calling that one.

In the game at Cumnock, our entrants were pretty even split, with Dalziel being slight favourites, but on the day Cumnock came away with a comfortable 50 points to 17 win.

As a result of our shocks, the average this week was down quite bit at only 60%, though we did get a few decent results, with Lesely McGeachy leading the way with 6 from 7 (85%). 

A number of our to Top 10 leaderboard scored 5 from 7, but with a few scoring only 4 from 7, we have a bit of swapping of places, including our leader.

Fatman has been leading the overall competition for nearly eights weeks now, but with only four from seven, they've dropped down to second place, with Gordon Milne regaining top spot with an overall 78.9% success rate.  There's just over half a %age point between the two of them, which equates to a single result.

With Dalziel and Endrick scheduled to face each other midweek, we are left with only five fixtures this weekend where both the West 1 and West 3 titles could be decided.

A win for Glens at Fort Matilda, and they win West 1, but a win for Greenock, and we need to go to the final game of the season.

If Glens lose, but pick up a couple of bonus points, then they finish on the same points tally as EK (Glens currently have a stronger points difference).  

A Greenock win would mean a win against Annan in the last game of the season, and they claim the title - but if they don't win that final game, then we could have EK winning the title, or Glens or we could still be on course for our scenario where the top 3 all finish on 93 points.  

In the West 3 battle, a bonus point win for WD at Birkmyre would give them the title, but no bonus point and it's also down to the last game of the season, with the re-arranged Uni Medics game v Mull, where Medics need a bonus point win and a chase for scores to increase their points difference.

This is the last weekend of the Predictor Challenge, and in a similar way to the West 1 and 3 title races, this set of results will decide who takes our title, and the prize of a couple of tickets to the Pro 14 final (just cheap seats, and we're still waiting for them to be delivered despite having paid them several months ago).

It's between Gordon Milne and Fatman as to who will be this seasons Predictor Challenge winner.  There's a fraction of a point between them, where a single result will make a difference.

So we're 12,955 predictions into the season (from 296 entrants), and it all comes down to the last set of fixtures, with two title contenders separated by a fraction of a percentage.




See also: 

Predictor Challenge Update - 6th April 2019
Predictor Challenge Update - 30th March 2019
Predictor Challenge Update - 23rd March 2019
Predictor Challenge Update - 16th March 2019

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