West Region Rugby - Scotland: Predictor Challenge Update

The bulk of the results went as our Predictor Challenge entrants called it, but there were a couple of minor shocks, as well as a draw which none of us called.

	Predicted win %				Draw	Count
Allan Glens	90.0%	v	10.0%	Kilmarnock	0.0%	50
Annan	50.0%	v	48.0%	Irvine	2.0%	50
Cambuslang	4.0%	v	96.0%	Garnock	0.0%	50
Cumnock	62.0%	v	38.0%	Strathendrick	0.0%	50
Greenock Wanderers	60.0%	v	34.0%	East Kilbride	6.0%	50
Stewartry	88.0%	v	10.0%	Dalziel	2.0%	50
Bishopton	25.5%	v	74.5%	Oban Lorne	0.0%	47
Lenzie	91.5%	v	8.5%	Helensburgh	0.0%	47
Paisley	85.1%	v	12.8%	Loch Lomond	2.1%	47
Uddingston	80.4%	v	19.6%	Cumbernauld	0.0%	46
Wigtownshire	61.7%	v	38.3%	Clydebank	0.0%	47
Birkmyre	22.9%	v	77.1%	Glasgow Uni Medics	0.0%	48
Cowal	69.6%	v	28.3%	Isle of Mull	2.2%	46
Lochaber	67.4%	v	32.6%	Hyndland	0.0%	46

The main shock in the Predictor Challenge was in the West 1 relegation contest between Cumnock and Strathendrick. Our entrants had Cumnock as favourites, but it was Endrick who took this one 19-7.

At the top of the table the big game was at Fort Matilda, where Greenock took the win, as predicted by our entrants. However, there were only two points in it (the same difference as when the two met earlier in the season), so not too far off a shock.

None of us predicted the West 2 draw between Wigtownshire and Clydebank (though there were five draws predicted across the three leagues). The other game that almost caused a shock was at Uddingston where the home team were firm favourites, but a try for Cumbernauld in the closing minutes means that whilst Uddy did pick up the win, it was by only four points.

In West 3, each of the results went as predicted, but the Lochaber v Hyndland result was somewhat closer than the Odds suggested.

We had 48 entrants in the Predictor Challenge last weekend, submitting 674 predictions, with a healthy success rate of 69% (not bad considering no-one scored a point from the Wigtownshire v Clydebank game).

We do have a 100% entry, though to be honest, Yotr did only submit a prediction for the Uni Medics game.

C_McW scored an impressive 91%, with a 10 out of the 11 games predicted. There are 8 entrants scoring 86% (12 from 14), several of whom are in our overall Top 10 leaderboard.

This weeks Top 10 Leaderboard shows several changes in positions. As we noted above, several entrants scored 12 from 14, but there were others scoring less well with 9 and 10 out of 14.

When we started the Predictor Challenge in September it was a bit of a laugh for a few of us, but things have quickly developed. Across the season, we've had 253 people submitting 10,180 entries, with around 50 each week and a solid base of regulars.

We've therefore decided to put up a prize for the person who wins the overall competition come the end of the season. We've picked up a couple of tickets for the Pro 14 Final (ok, they're cheap seats, but hey, we're doing this on a tight budget).

As a result, we're going to tighten up the conditions for a place on the Top 10 leaderboard.

From February, the minimum number of entries for qualification for a place on the leaderboard will be 50 (which the current leaderboard all meet). From March we will increase this to 65, which equates to four weeks worth of predictions.

We've also had a couple of entrants choosing individual games, which has raised a point for us. Whilst these entrants look like they're selecting their own Club game, we can see a potential for a gaming of our system, so to be eligible for the Top 10 leaderboard, we'll require predictions for all games within a specific league each week. We'll still count individual match entries on a weekly basis, but we won't carry those results forward to the monthly or Top 10 leaderboard.

Despite it being a 6 Nations weekend, we do have 11 West Regional games scheduled this weekend, so the Predictor Challenge is again being run. Submit your entry here.

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Tuesday 12 February 2019

Predictor Challenge Update - 16 February 2019

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