Predictor Challenge Update - 1st December 2018

With a couple of "surprise" results at the weekend as well as draw that no-one predicted, it won't come as too much of  revelation that we had a drop in the average this week, but in fact it's the poorest result to date for the Predictor Challenge.

We had 44 entrants this week, submitting 430 predictions across the matches that were played.  Here's what the Odds looked like at kick-off time on Saturday.

	Predicted win %				Draw	Count
Allan Glens	72.7%	v	27.3%	East Kilbride	0.0%	44
Annan	90.9%	v	9.1%	Strathendrick	0.0%	44
Cambuslang	77.3%	v	22.7%	Cumnock	0.0%	44
Dalziel	p	v	p	Irvine
Kilmarnock	18.2%	v	81.8%	Garnock	0.0%	44
Stewartry	9.1%	v	90.9%	Greenock Wanderers	0.0%	44
Bishopton	76.2%	v	23.8%	Loch Lomond	0.0%	42
Lenzie	p	v	p	Wigtownshire
Millbrae	57.1%	v	42.9%	Cumbernauld	0.0%	42
Oban Lorne	90.7%	v	9.3%	Helensburgh	0.0%	43
Strathaven	71.4%	v	28.6%	Paisley	0.0%	42
Uddingston	p	v	p	Clydebank
Birkmyre	p	v	p	Lochaber
Cowal	p	v	p	Hyndland
Shawlands	p	v	p	Glasgow Uni Medics
Waysiders Drumpellier	95.1%	v	4.9%	Moffat	0.0%	41

Our "surprise" results came in the Allan Glens v East Kilbride and Bishopton v Loch Lomond games, where our entrants on the whole went for the home team in both games.  Added to this, none of our entrants went for a draw in the Strathaven v Paisley game, where Strathaven were heavy favourites.


These "surprise" results means we have an overall success rate of only 55% this week, which is down significantly from the past few weeks where we have been recording high 60 or 70%+ returns.

But it's not all doom and gloom, as we look at the top of the weekly scoreboard, with ourselves and Keith Bradley recording 8 from 10 correct submissions (80%).

Keiths result this week matches his running total of 80% so maintaining his position at the top of the overall leaderboard.

With an average success rate of 55% this week, it probably comes as no surprise that a number of entrants haven't scored as well as in previous weeks, which means there's a bit of movement in the overall leaderboard.

Interestingly (well from a sad stats perspective anyway), and as you'll see from the weekly results table, the Random entry scored 7 out of 10.  It makes us wonder just how high a score is possible for a random entry.

The running totals for the Challenge sees 184 participants, who have submitted 6,416 predictions for games which have been played, with 4,226 correct results - an average of 66%.

A copy of the overall scoreboard is available here.


Note:
1) To be eligible for a position on the leaderboard then we must have received a minimum of two sets of predictions from an entrant. From next week, we will be altering this slightly in setting the the minimum number of Predictions at 30.  Obviously as the season progresses, so this minimum will again increase.



See also:
Predictor Challenge Update - 24th November 2018
Predictor Challenge Update - 17th November 2018
Predictor Challenge Update - 10th November 2018
Predictor Challenge Update - 3rd November 2018
Predictor Challenge Update - 27th October 2018